美联储点阵图三个月更新一次，3月份暗示年内降息3次，2024-2026预期利率中值依次是4.6%-3.9%-3.1%，六月份暗示年内降息1次，2024-2026预期利率中值依次为5.1%-4.1%-3.1%，市场不信，依旧认为年内至少降息2次。
目前市场认为年内降息3次即11-12月有两次，其中有一次50个基点。
点阵图观察3.1%的终端中值是否变化，变小则鸽利多，变大则鹰利空。
点阵图若暗示11-12月只有一次降息且幅度约25个基点，则鹰利空。点阵图暗示年内有一个50基点降息则鸽利多。
个人偏向25个基点降息+年内一次降息的点阵图25个基点+鸽派的发布会
发布会应该继续强调基于数据调整政策，发布会如果大吹通胀控制效果就是鸽，但凡对通胀反弹有担忧就是鹰，鼓吹失业率控制好就是鹰，但凡对失业率表示担忧就是鸽。
谨防下跌是主旋律。
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