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周二(9月24日)机构将年底的央行预测定为再降息75个基点,这意味着在未来两次会议中,美联储至少有一次需要降息50个基点。到上周五,他们已经将两次会议都降息50个基点的可能性定为25%,而美联储按照其多数决策者所说,在每次会议中仅降息正常的25个基点的可能性也为25%。就在今年,多数决策者的利率预测就从预测到今年年底降息三次降至三个月前的点状图中预测降息一次,现在又回升到四次,包括上周的两次降息。在评估美联储将如何应对任何经济发展时,很多方面都取决于美联储认为利率最终将在平衡的经济中达到何种水平,即经济学家所说的中性利率。美元指数反弹至101.00;非美货币分化,澳元兑美元到达0.6830,欧元兑美元下跌至1.1100附近,离岸人民币到达7.06。现货黄金攀升至2627美元附近,现货白银来到30.80美元附近。原油反弹至71.60美元附近。

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