我原本以为黄金空头的机会在周五，因为节前最后一天，保守获利了结是最佳策略，毕竟现在中东局势紧张还能支持黄金进一步上涨，然而：
1. 历史数据对比：含期权icon和期货基金净多头达到34.5万时，黄金三个月内下跌概率是100%，平均下跌幅度是20%，出现技术熊市反转概率高达66%。
2. 当前数据：含期权和期货基金净多头达到30万，一个月内下跌概率是57%。
3. 仅期货基金数据：仅期货基金净多头达到23万时，两个月内下跌概率是100%；达到21.6万时，三个月内涨跌概率是50%。
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