📊 Product: XAU/USD
📈 Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
Gold prices are finding support around $2,625-2,624, having stalled their pullback from last week's record high. Geopolitical risks and mixed performances in Asian equity markets are driving safe-haven flows toward XAU/USD. On Monday, gold dipped into the $2,650s as traders took profits after a nearly 1.4% rally to new highs. A strong rise in Chinese stocks, particularly a 7.5% gain in the CSI 300, and a positive outlook for the Chinese property market due to lower mortgage rates are diverting interest from gold.
Investor opinions on gold's future vary. Darin Newsom from Barchart.com expects the uptrend to continue amid rising global uncertainties, while Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank sees momentum fading. Adrian Day anticipates little short-term change but remains bullish over the next six to twelve months as Western investors begin to buy gold.
Technical Analysis:
Gold continues to pull back after reaching record highs, but it remains in an uptrend over the short, medium, and long term. In technical analysis, the principle that “the trend is your friend” suggests further upside for the metal.
Currently, gold is considered overbought according to the Relative Strength Index, nearing neutral territory (below 70). If it closes daily within this neutral zone, traders may close long positions and consider shorting. For now, being overbought advises against adding to long positions.
If a deeper correction occurs, strong support is at $2,600, $2,550, and $2,544. However, given gold’s strong uptrend, any correction may be short-lived, allowing bulls to push prices higher. Upside targets are $2,700 and $2,750.
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