On November 27 (Wednesday), the New Zealand Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate decision. The market expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates by 50 basis points for the second consecutive time, making it one of the most active interest rate cuts among Western central banks.
Of the 23 economists surveyed, 22 predicted the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would cut interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday, to 4.25%. One economist expects a 75 basis point rate cut.
RBNZ will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in its November Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), taking interest rates to 4.25%. This move will bring the official cash rate closer to a neutral level of 3% to 4%, which is the balance needed to stabilize inflation and support the economy.
Tuffley added that a 50 basis point rate cut would best balance the various risks. Given that the current economic environment is consistent with the RBNZ's previous forecasts, a larger rate cut of 75 basis points may be too aggressive.
He also said: "With the process of normalizing monetary policy basically completed, we expect that after 2025, changes in the official cash rate will face a higher threshold." He also added that the New Zealand Reserve Bank may adopt a gradual approach to implement future interest rate cuts.
New Zealand's economy has stalled and inflation has slowed faster than policymakers expected, prompting them to return benchmark interest rates to more neutral levels that no longer constrain economic growth. Investors are betting that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut the cash rate to 3.25% in the second half of next year, but the pace of easing remains uncertain due to lingering concerns about global inflation after Trump won the U.S. election.
Wednesday's decision is the RBNZ's last in 2024, with a 12-week gap until the next meeting in mid-February.
A 50 basis point rate cut was clearly the path of least resistance. Given the RBNZ's confidence in the inflation ou
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