日元领跑G10货币,背后的驱动力是什么?
在短短三个交易日内,日元兑美元汇率累涨超2.8%,涨幅领跑G10货币。美元兑日元接连跌破153、152和151关口,最低触及150.45,市场目光聚焦于推动日元上涨的关键因素。
1⃣ 美日利率预期变化
交易员预测日本央行可能加息,而美联储降息的概率则在上升。两国国债收益率差距预期收窄,为日元提供了上涨动力。
2⃣ 日本经济数据支撑
10月核心CPI同比增长2.3%,连续38个月高于目标水平。日本央行行长植田和男暗示,若经济符合预期,逐步加息是可能的选择。
3⃣ 美联储态度转变
11月会议纪要显示,美联储或在12月降息,市场预计概率高达70%。政策分化进一步提升日元吸引力。
未来,美元兑日元走势将取决于两国央行的政策动态。日元能否继续保持强势,仍需关注更多市场信号。
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