On Tuesday, spot gold prices edged down 0.2% to close at $2,640 an ounce. Strong U.S. labor market data reinforced the view that the U.S. economy is solid while driving a stronger dollar, putting pressure on dollar-denominated gold.
According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the number of JOLTS job openings in the United States increased to 7.744 million in October, which was higher than the market consensus of 7.48 million and higher than the downwardly revised 7.372 million in September. The data prompted gold to give back some of its earlier gains on comments from Federal Reserve officials.
In addition, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows that the market's probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December has increased to 72.5% from the previous mid-60%.
While a stronger U.S. dollar and interest rate outlook weighed on gold prices, geopolitical risks provided support for gold. The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and political risks in France have kept the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset high.
From a technical perspective, gold prices are still fluctuating near the main trend lines, showing a range-bound trend. Currently, gold may be forming a three-wave "Measured Move" pattern. If this pattern holds true, the next wave could be a downward “C wave” with a target near $2,550.
If the price of gold falls below US$2,605 (low on November 26), the subsequent downward trend will be confirmed, with a target price of US$2,550 near the end of the "C wave". In addition, the MACD indicator recently fell below the red signal line and is in the negative zone, sending a bearish signal and supporting the view that gold prices will decline in the short term.
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