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港股异动 | 蒙牛乳业(02319)逆市涨近4% 原材料降价足以抵销竞争激烈影响 机构看好公司加强股东回报

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蒙牛乳业(02319)逆市涨近4%,截至发稿,涨3.34%,报12.98港元,成交额1.69亿港元。

麦格理发表研报称,由于牛奶需求疲弱及市场竞争激烈,预测蒙牛上半年业绩承压,但考虑到今年上半年行业原奶价格进一步下跌逾一成,麦格理相信原材料价格下降,足以抵销市场竞争所带来的负面影响。该行认为,行业或最快于今年下半年可达到供需平衡的状态;预期行业需求疲弱下蒙牛将控制资本开支,并加强股东回报,全年股息率料达3.8%。

广发证券此前指出,近年来乳制品行业增长放缓,但乳制品龙头商业模式好、在产业链上下游中具备较强话语权,具备长期创造自由现金流的能力。其中,2023 年伊利和蒙牛自由现金流均创新高,分红比例均提升。该行指出,2023年蒙牛将分红比例提升至40.0%,预计未来蒙牛分红比例仍有提升潜力。

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