美联储一句“时候到了”,全球股指应声创新高
美东时间8月23日上午10点,鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会表示“时候到了”,发出迄今为止最明确的降息信号,暗示美联储9月降息。
鲍威尔发言后,美国的低利率前景和高经济韧性提振股市,全球股市创历史新高,美股小盘股和芯片股指涨约3%,MSCI ACWI指数(全球所有国家指数)昨日上涨1.2%,自8月5日低点以来上涨超9%,美债收益率走低,美元跟随下跌。
目前,标准普尔500指数距离历史高点不到1%,以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数仍需上涨超过4%才能收复过去几周的损失。而日股、台股和韩股在近期的抛售中受到打击最严重,但目前已成为全球表现最好的股票。
目前,市场预期美联储9月降息50个基点的可能性为三分之一,降息25个基点的可能性为三分之二,交易员预计美联储到12月将降息约100个基点。
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