鲍威尔：不急于降息

引子

北京时间凌晨4点，鲍威尔在达拉斯的演讲中表示“经济并没有发出任何我们需要急于降低利率的信号”，这是他在通胀数据公布后首次提供对未来货币政策的指引/沟通，虽然在演讲稿中鲍威尔依然强调就业和通胀的风险趋于平衡，但在提及通胀时强调了2%的目标没有被达到（not there yet），并且致力于“完成这项工作”（committed to finishing the job）。

笔者的观感是，相比于9月/11月议息会议时的表态和姿态，鲍威尔轻微地把风险平衡从就业风险再度拨回了中间态。此前市场参与者并未把2%列为严格的需要被达到的通胀数字目标，但鲍威尔的表态看起来这是一项必须完成的任务，这或许与明年5年一度的联储框架审查压力有关。

另外，这种姿态变化显然不是大选的胜出者想要看到的……

演讲全文

Good afternoon. Thank you to the World Affairs Council, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and the Dallas Regional Chamber for the kind invitation to be with you today. I will start with some brief comments on the economy and monetary policy.

大家下午好。感谢世界事务委员会、达拉斯联邦储备银行和达拉斯地区商会的盛情邀请。首先，我将简要谈谈经济和货币政策。

Looking back, the U.S. economy has weathered a global pandemic and its aftermath and is now back to a good place. The economy has made significant progress toward our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices. The labor market remains in solid condition. Inflation has eased substantially from its peak, and we believe it is on a sustainable path to our 2 percent goal. We are committed to maintaining our economy's strength by returning inflation to our goal while supporting maximum employment.

回顾过去，美国经济经受住了Covid及其后果的考验，目前已恢复到良好的状态。经济在实现充分就业和物价稳定的双重使命方面取得了重大进展。劳动力市场依然稳固。通胀率已从高峰大幅回落，我们相信，通胀率正朝着2%的目标持续迈进。我们致力于通过使通胀率回到我们的目标，同时支持充分就业，来保持我们的经济强劲。

Recent Economic Data 近期经济数据

Economic growth 经济增长

The recent performance of our economy has been remarkably good, by far the best of any major economy in the world. Economic output grew by more than 3 percent last year and is expanding at a stout 2.5 percent rate so far this year. Growth in consumer spending has remained strong, supported by increases in disposable income and solid household balance sheets. Business investment in equipment and intangibles has accelerated over the past year. In contrast, activity in the housing sector has been weak.

我国经济近期的表现非常出色，是迄今为止世界主要经济体中表现最好的。去年，经济产出增长了3%以上，今年到目前为止，经济增长速度达到了2.5%。在可支配收入增加和家庭资产负债表稳健的支撑下，消费支出增长依然强劲。过去一年，企业在设备和无形资产方面的投资也在加速。与此相反，住房部门的活动却十分疲软。

Improving supply conditions have supported this strong performance of the economy. The labor force has expanded rapidly, and productivity has grown faster over the past five years than its pace in the two decades before the pandemic, increasing the productive capacity of the economy and allowing rapid economic growth without overheating.

供应条件的改善为经济的强劲表现提供了支持。劳动力队伍迅速扩大，过去五年的生产率增长速度超过了Covid以前二十年的速度，提高了经济的生产能力，使经济在不过热的情况下快速增长。

The labor market 劳动力市场

The labor market remains in solid condition, having cooled off from the significantly overheated conditions of a couple of years ago, and is now by many metrics back to more normal levels that are consistent with our employment mandate. The number of job openings is now just slightly above the number of unemployed Americans seeking work. The rate at which workers quit their jobs is below the pre-pandemic pace, after touching historic highs two years ago. Wages are still increasing, but at a more sustainable pace. Hiring has slowed from earlier in the year. The most recent jobs report for October reflected significant effects from hurricanes and labor strikes, making it difficult to get a clear signal. Finally, at 4.1 percent, the unemployment rate is notably higher than a year ago but has flattened out in recent months and remains historically low.

劳动力市场的状况依然稳健，已经从几年前明显过热的状况中冷却下来，从许多指标来看，现在已经恢复到与我们的就业任务相一致的更正常水平。目前，职位空缺数量仅略高于美国失业求职人数。工人的辞职率在两年前达到历史高点后，现在已低于疫情前的水平。工资仍在增长，且速度更可持续。与年初相比，招聘速度有所放缓。10月份的最新就业报告反映了飓风和罢工的重大影响，因此很难获得明确的信号。最后，失业率为 4.1%，明显高于一年前，但最近几个月已趋于平稳，仍处于历史低位。

Inflation 通货膨胀

The labor market has cooled to the point where it is no longer a source of significant inflationary pressures. This cooling and the substantial improvement in broader supply conditions have brought inflation down significantly over the past two years from its mid-2022 peak above 7 percent. Progress on inflation has been broad based. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data released this week indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending in October and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.8 percent. Core measures of goods and services inflation, excluding housing, fell rapidly over the past two years and have returned to rates closer to those consistent with our goals. We expect that these rates will continue to fluctuate in their recent ranges. We are watching carefully to be sure that they do, however, just as we are closely tracking the gradual decline in housing services inflation, which has yet to fully normalize. Inflation is running much closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal, but it is not there yet. We are committed to finishing the job. With labor market conditions in rough balance and inflation expectations well anchored, I expect inflation to continue to come down toward our 2 percent objective, albeit on a sometimes-bumpy path.

劳动力市场已经降温，不再是重大通胀压力的来源。这种降温以及更广泛的供应条件的大幅改善，使通胀率在过去两年中从2022年中期超过7%的峰值大幅回落。通胀方面的进展具有广泛的基础。根据本周公布的消费者价格指数（CPI）和其他数据进行的估算表明，在截至10月份的12个月中，PCE总价格上涨了2.3%，除去波动较大的食品和能源类别，核心PCE价格上涨了2.8%。不包括住房在内的核心商品和服务通胀率在过去两年中迅速下降，目前已恢复到更接近我们目标的水平。我们预计，通胀率将继续在其最近的读数范围内波动。不过，我们正在仔细观察，以确保它们确实如此，正如我们正在密切跟踪住房服务通胀率的逐步下降一样，这一通胀率尚未完全正常化。通胀率正逐步接近我们2%的长期目标，但还没有达到。我们致力于完成这项工作。随着劳动力市场状况的基本平衡和通胀预期的良好锚定，我预计通胀率将继续向2%的目标回落，尽管道路有时会崎岖不平。

Monetary Policy 货币政策

Given progress toward our inflation goal and the cooling of labor market conditions, last week my Federal Open Market Committee colleagues and I took another step in reducing the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate 1/4 percentage point.

鉴于我们在实现通胀目标方面取得的进展以及劳动力市场状况的降温，上周我和联邦公开市场委员会的同事们在降低政策约束（紧缩）程度方面又迈出了一步，将政策利率下调了25个基点。

We are confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the economy and the labor market can be maintained, with inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent. We see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as being roughly in balance, and we are attentive to the risks to both sides. We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.

我们相信，只要适当调整我们的政策立场，经济和劳动力市场就能保持强劲，通胀率也能持续下降到2%。我们认为，实现就业目标和通胀目标所面临的风险大体平衡，我们会关注这两方面的风险。我们知道，过快地减少政策约束可能会阻碍通胀方面的进展。与此同时，过慢地减少政策约束也会不适当地削弱经济活动和就业。

We are moving policy over time to a more neutral setting. But the path for getting there is not preset. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, we will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates. The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully. Ultimately, the path of the policy rate will depend on how the incoming data and the economic outlook evolve.

随着时间的推移，我们正在将政策转向更加中性的设定。但实现这一目标的路径并不是预设的。在考虑对联邦基金利率目标区间进行额外调整时，我们将仔细评估收到的数据、不断变化的前景以及风险平衡。经济并没有发出任何我们需要急于降低利率的信号。我们目前看到的经济强劲现状使我们有能力谨慎地做出决定。最终，政策利率的走向将取决于新数据和经济前景的演变。

We remain resolute in our commitment to the dual mandate given to us by Congress: maximum employment and price stability. Our aim has been to return inflation to our objective without the kind of painful rise in unemployment that has often accompanied past efforts to bring down high inflation. That would be a highly desirable result for the communities, families, and businesses we serve. While the task is not complete, we have made a good deal of progress toward that outcome.

我们仍然坚定地致力于完成国会赋予我们的双重使命：充分就业和稳定物价。我们的目标是使通胀率回到我们的目标，而不会像过去为降低高通胀率所做的努力那样，伴随着失业率的上升而痛苦不堪。对于我们所服务的社区、家庭和企业来说，这将是一个非常理想的结果。虽然任务尚未完成，但我们已经在实现这一目标方面取得了很大进展。

Thank you, and I look forward to our discussion.

谢谢，我期待着我们的讨论

文章来源：智堡投研，原文标题：《鲍威尔：不急于降息》