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摘要 2025年海内外宏观经济面临巨大的不确定性。2024年末市场已经在一些重要层面达成了“一致性预期”，但“不确定性”意味着事件发生的概率难以事先测度，政策路径兑现引致资产价格上行和下行的潜在风险都很高。因此我们精选美国加征关税、美国通胀路径和美联储降息节奏、中国经济增长结构性因素等6个重要经济主题，分析2025年可能存在的重大“预期差”，以及映射到人民币汇率、中债利率、A股风格和股市政策等4个市场议题上存在哪些打破共识的风险。 一、关税不会导致美国显著通胀。许多学术机构认为，特朗普关税政策将导致美国通胀显著走高，如PIIE测算2025-27年美国CPI同比增速将较基准情形分别高出1.34→

印度11月通胀降温，为其经济提供了新的发展契机，同时也为新任央行行长Sanjay Malhotra提供了更多政策调整空间。 周四，根据印度统计局发布的数据，11月CPI同比上涨5.48%，符合经济学家的预测，较10月份6.21%的14个月高点明显回落，显示出通胀压力有所缓解。 当地时间周一(12月9日)，印度政府任命Sanjay Malhotra接替Shaktikanta Das为印度央行新行长。一些经济学家认为，相对鹰派的Das的离开可能为印度央行的降息铺平道路。 周三，Malhotra已经明确表示，印度央行的首要任务是确保国家的持续增长。他在就职演讲中提到，“确保这个国家的增长继续下去”是

Kịch bảnKhung thời gianHàng tuầnSự giới thiệuBÁN DỪNGĐiểm vào54,65Lấy lợi nhuận53,12, 51,56, 50,00Dừng lỗ55,90Các cấp độ chính50,00, 51,56, 53,12, 54,69, 57,81, 60,94, 62,50Kịch bản thay thếSự giới thiệuMUA DỪNGĐiểm vào57,85Lấy lợi nhuận60,94, 62,50Dừng lỗ56,65Các cấp độ chính50,00, 51,56, 53,12, 54

The Bank of England's broad, trade-weighted sterling index is on its highs of the year, ING’s FX strategist Chris Turner notes. BoE's easing cycle to be repriced closer to that of the Fed “We are all waiting for a catalyst for the BoE's easing cycle to be repriced closer to that of the Fed 

Silver price slumps to near $30.50 after a strong recovery in the US Dollar.Traders are split over whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 or 50 bps in November.Investors will focus on the preliminary US PMI for September. Silver price (XAG/USD) faces sharp selling pressure above the key

ScenarioTimeframeWeeklyRecommendationBUYEntry Point430.73Take Profit469.50, 518.50Stop Loss400.50Key Levels309.40, 363.85, 400.50, 469.50, 518.50Alternative scenarioRecommendationSELL STOPEntry Point400.45Take Profit363.85, 309.40Stop Loss412.65Key Levels309.40, 363.85, 400.50, 469.50, 518.50Growth

USD/CNH diperdagangkan pada level terendah 7,0710 Jumat lalu setelah turun di bawah level psikologis 7,10, catat analis FX OCBC Christopher Wong. Saatnya apresiasi USD/CNH "Obrolan pasar tentang eksportir membuat USD bertahan lama, bergegas melepas setelah pasangan mata uang tersebut menembus level

Pasardana.id - Setelah server Pusat Dana Nasional (PDN) diretas oleh oknum tidak bertanggung jawab, Kepolisian Republik Indonesia (Polri) perketat keamanan data Indonesia Automatic Fingerprint Identification System (INAFIS) agar tidak bocor dan diperjualbelikan dalam dark web. Kadiv Humas Polri Irje

Giá dầu đang tăng cao hơn, nhưng bất kỳ tiến triển nào nữa đều phụ thuộc vào Fed . Bất kỳ dấu hiệu nào cho thấy lãi suất có thể duy trì ở mức cao hơn trong thời gian dài hơn sẽ dập tắt mọi tham vọng của các nhà giao dịch Dầu để vượt lên trên 80 USD. Nếu Chủ tịch Fed Jerome Powell có bài ph

1.市场有风险，入市须谨慎 2 不求漂亮作单，只求落袋为安 3.宁可不挣钱，决不要赔钱 4.不可贪多嫌少，哪怕见好就收 5.接计划作单，不可擅改目标 6.不可长线短做，短线长做 7.不可犹豫不定，不可左顾右盼 8.不可盲目跟从，不可心存幻想 9.市场传言不可全信，但也不可不信 10.提高作单质量，控制作单数量 11.在传言时买入—卖出，在事实时卖出—买入 12.注重趋势，更要注重买入价 13.忘记过去，从头开始！ 14.事后认真总结，避免知错犯错 15.参考分析，要认清时间 16.作单不顺，暂时休息 17.技术图表，仅供参考，不可全信！ 18 经济数据，关注重点 19.市场假期，重整思路 20

SkenarioJangka waktuMingguanRekomendasiMEMBELITitik masuk241.78Mengambil keuntungan258.00, 275.00Hentikan Kerugian228.62Tingkat Kunci177,25, 192,00, 228,62, 258,00, 275,00Skenario alternatifRekomendasiJUAL BERHENTITitik masuk228.60Mengambil keuntungan192.00, 177.25Hentikan Kerugian240,80Tingkat Kunc

Dolar Kanada (CAD) terdorong ke tengah pada hari Kamis, diperdagangkan datar hingga seperempat persen di seluruh mata uang utama selama sesi pasar AS. CAD hanya mengalami sedikit kenaikan sepersepuluh persen terhadap Dolar AS (USD). Yen Jepang (JPY) turun seperempat persen terhadap Dolar K

Peso Meksiko berada dalam posisi defensif setelah terdepresiasi ke posisi terendah baru dalam lima bulan melewati 17,90. Level resistensi utama ditembus selama reli USD/MXN, dengan Simple Moving Average (SMA) 200-hari ditembus di 17,16. Meskipun pembeli belum mampu mencapai penutupan harian di atas

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index will be released at 12:30 GMT. The previous reading, for February, was at 0.05.The US Treasury is auctioning a 3-month and a 6-month bill at 15:30 GMT. In the commodity space, both Oil and Gas futures are falling as the tensions in the Middle East ease.Eq

ScenarioTimeframeWeeklyRecommendationBUY STOPEntry Point5180.0Take Profit5330.0Stop Loss5100.0Key Levels4920.0, 5080.0, 5180.0, 5330.0Alternative scenarioRecommendationSELL STOPEntry Point5080.0Take Profit4920.0Stop Loss5150.0Key Levels4920.0, 5080.0, 5180.0, 5330.0Current trend The leading index of